08 June 2026

Predico: collaborative forecasting platform

Information on this page is a subject to further studies and analysis

A platform designed to enhance forecasting accuracy and efficiency in the energy industry by introducing a multilateral, collaborative market for renewable energy forecasts.

What is Predico?

Predico is a collaborative forecasting market platform enabling entities with common interests to procure and sell forecasts. The platform was developed to lower overhead costs for all parties involved by leveraging market mechanisms and ensemble forecasting to improve forecasting accuracy and properly align forecaster incentives.

Why participate as a forecast buyer?

Accuracy: Predico is more accurate than standard bilateral contracting for three main reasons:

Ensembles outperform individual forecasts because they:
Balance out bias and overfitting

Combine information

Minimize extreme errors

Are more reliable for the buyer through redundancy, and less demanding for the individual forecasters (no SLAs)
Markets outperform bilateral contracts because they:
Reward accurate outside views

Align remuneration with outcomes through performance-based compensation:

Increases competition and innovation

Incentivizes continuous improvement

Incentivize accuracy

Lower overhead costs for everyone.

Provide larger upside to accurate forecasters than bilateral contracts at a lower cost to buyers

Are able to adapt dynamically to changing circumstances, e.g. energy market dynamics for interconnector forecasts

Enable scale diversity. Small and large providers compete equally
Simplicity & Efficiency:

Buy multiple forecasts under one contract without additional overhead costs related to market research, forecaster evaluation, and procurement.

Why participate as a forecast provider?

Remuneration

Remuneration by forecast buyers based on performance. Good forecasts earn good money.
Simplicity & Efficiency

Provide forecasts through a single contract, reducing overhead costs related to marketing, sales, and legal negotiations.
Market Access

Gain access to a larger market without the need for additional sales efforts.
Zero SLAs

Standard forecasting contracts often have onerous service level and reliability requirements, but on a multilateral market without an SLA, you can avoid penalties and staffing requirements associated with such traditional contracts.

How Predico works and how to get involved

How does Predico work?
For Buyers: Create a market or participate in an existing one to receive skill-weighted aggregate market forecasts.

For Forecasters: Submit forecasts to the market and be remunerated. Non-commercial forecasters may also participate.
How do I become a participant?

If you are a forecast buyer interested in participating in a market, contact [email protected]. For the moment, Predico is at proof-of-concept stage, meaning that participants cannot create markets independently.

If you are a forecaster interested in participating in a market, you can register by contacting us on [email protected]. After registering, you will be able to submit forecasts via an HTTP request. The API documentation can be found at Predico REST API (inesctec.pt). There is also a Python client which simplifies the interaction with the platform.

Project timeline

November 2024 – June 2026: Test phase by running a proof of concept for the Belgian offshore wind and solar generation

March 2025: Opening the platform to external buyers and markets.
July 2026: into the future: Belgian solar generation
July 2026: December 2026: 50Hertz wind and solar generation

Participate in the Belgian Solar Generation Market

Our first market was for Belgian offshore wind energy generation, but we are now running Belgian total solar generation.

Market value: €7k/month for total remuneration. This amount would be spread between forecasters participating in the market based on their accuracy rank and information contribution. The best forecasters on the market could earn about €1.5-2k/month from the forecast. More details can be found in the documentation.
Target variable (also available on Predico): The ‘measured and upscaled’ value is published at the following address.
Resolution: 15 mins
Horizon: Continuous hourly, up to D+10
Forecast type: Probabilistic: P10, P50, P90.

Participate in the German Wind & Solar Generation Market

Market value: €7k/month per market. This amount would be spread between forecasters participating in the market based on their accuracy rank and information contribution. The best forecasters on the market could earn about €1.5-2k/month from the forecast. More details can be found in the documentation.
Target variables: Wind power and Photovoltaics (also available on Entsoe and Predico):
Resolution: 15 mins
Horizon: Forecast at 15:00 European Central Time on D-1 for day D
Forecast type: Probabilistic: P10, P50, P90.